I believe it was Smash Mouth who once said, “My world’s on fire, how ’bout yours?” My world is on fire.
About a month ago I was on a hot streak that culminated with a 6 team NBA parlay that paid out well. That weekend a non-gambler friend asked how I was doing betting sports. What a great coincidence, I thought, of all the weekends I could’ve been asked this question he happened to ask it right after possibly my best week ever in the year that I’ve been wagering on sports. So I told him how great I was doing. I bragged about the good chunk of change I made betting against Roma at the Oscars and talked up my big 6 team NBA win. I’m not a superstitious man, but a voice in the back of my mind was screaming at me while I talked up all my recent wins: bragging about these wins is bad luck.
My biggest enemy when I win big is myself. My sportsbook also offers online poker, and it turns out I’m no good at poker. the lowest stake tables are 5/10 cent blinds with a 4 dollar buy in. Surely you can’t lose a good amount of money when the stakes are that low, right? Well when you lose 4 dollars in online poker it doesn’t feel like very much money at all. So you buy in for 4 more and lose it all because you shoved AQ against AA and __cardk1ng67 catches and Ace on the river. And so on and so forth until you’ve lost much more than you’d like 4 dollars at a time.
And then the tournament comes around and I lose a lot of money on Cuse in the first round. Then I write a blog about how easy of a win it’ll be betting on the NIT, and that loses too.
Now we’re at today and Florida State is getting 8 points against the weakest 1 seed in Gonzaga. Florida State is the hottest team coming into the tournament, they’re length can disrupt the Zags’ offense and they’re one of the deepest teams in the nation, allowing them to rotate in fresh legs on an uptempo offense. I bet big on Florida State +8, it’s the only game Thursday I have money on. So of course they lose by double digits.
But to make matters worse, when Florida State was down by 10 with just under 10 minutes left in the second half I see I can live bet Florida State moneyline at +950. There’s so much value there! Florida State has been playing better than the Zags this half, forcing turnovers and getting Gonzaga players into foul trouble early in the second half. Sure, they’re not getting any of their shots to fall but they’re playing well besides that and the shots will start falling soon. So another bet on Florida State this time on the moneyline.
Playing it safe tomorrow and parlaying North Carolina and Duke moneylines. With how things have been going both teams will find a way to lose. March has busted my bracket as well as my bankroll.